(Update: On
Tuesday, May 16, the Senate passed Sen.
Jeff Bingaman's (D-NM) amendment to S.
2611 that significantly reduced the
number of legal immigrants who could
enter under the bill's "guest worker"
program. As a result of this change, our
estimate of the number of legal
immigrants who would enter the country
or would gain legal status under S. 2611
falls from 103 million to around 66
million over the next 20 years.)
If enacted, the
Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act (CIRA,
S.2611) would be the most dramatic
change in immigration law in 80 years,
allowing an estimated 103 million
persons to legally immigrate to the U.S.
over the next 20 years—fully one-third
of the current population of the United
States.
Much attention
has been given to the fact that the bill
grants amnesty to some 10 million
illegal immigrants. Little or no
attention has been given to the fact
that the bill would quintuple the rate
of legal immigration into the United
States, raising, over time, the inflow
of legal immigrants from around one
million per year to over five million
per year. The impact of this increase in
legal immigration dwarfs the magnitude
of the amnesty provisions.
In contrast to
the 103 million immigrants permitted
under CIRA, current law allows 19
million legal immigrants over the next
twenty years. Relative to current law,
then, CIRA would add an extra 84 million
legal immigrants to the nation’s
population.
The figure of
103 million legal immigrants is a
reasonable estimate of the actual
immigration inflow under the bill and
not the maximum number that would be
legally permitted to enter. The maximum
number that could legally enter would be
almost 200 million over twenty
years—over 180 million more legal
immigrants than current law permits.
Immigration
Status
To understand
the provisions of CIRA, largely based on
a compromise by Senators Chuck Hagel
(R–Nebraska) and Mel Martinez
(R–Florida), it is useful to distinguish
between the three legal statuses that a
legal immigrant might hold:
Temporary
Status: Persons in this category
enter the U.S. temporarily and are
required to leave after a period of
time.
Near-Permanent, Convertible Status:
Persons in this category enter the
U.S. and are given the opportunity
to “adjust” or convert to legal
permanent residence after a few
years.
Legal
Permanent Residence (LPR): Persons
in this category have the right to
remain in the United States for
their entire lives. After five
years, they have the right to
naturalize and become citizens. As
naturalized citizens, they have the
constitutional rights to vote and to
receive any government benefits
given to native-born citizens.
A key feature of
CIRA is that most immigrants identified
as “temporary” are, in fact, given
convertible status with a virtually
unrestricted opportunity to become legal
permanent residents and then citizens.
Another
important feature of both CIRA and
existing immigration law is that
immigrants in convertible or LPR status
have the right to bring spouses and
minor children into the country. Spouses
and dependent children will be granted
permanent residence along with the
primary immigrant and may also become
citizens. In addition, after
naturalizing, an immigrant has the right
to bring his parents into the U.S. as
permanent residents with the opportunity
for citizenship. There are no numeric
limits on the number of spouses,
dependent children, and parents of
naturalized citizens that may be brought
into the country. Additionally, the
siblings and adult children (along with
their families) of naturalized citizens
and the adult children (and their
families) of legal permanent residents
are given preference in future admission
but are subject to numeric caps.
Key Provisions
of CIRA
Four key
provisions of CIRA would result in an
explosive increase in legal immigration.
Amnesty for
Current Illegal Immigrants: CIRA offers
amnesty and citizenship to 85 percent of
the nation’s current 11.9 million
illegal immigrants. Under the plan,
illegal immigrants who have been in the
U.S. for five years or more (60 percent
of illegals) would be granted immediate
amnesty. Illegal immigrants who have
been in the country between two and five
years (25 percent of illegals) could
travel to one of 16 “ports of entry,”
where they would receive amnesty and
lawful work permits.
[1]
In total, the bill
would grant amnesty to 85 percent of the
current illegal immigrant population, or
some 10 million individuals.
After receiving amnesty, illegal
immigrants would spend six years in a
provisional status before attaining LPR
status. After five years in LPR status,
they would have the opportunity to
become naturalized citizens and vote in
U.S. elections. As well, the spouses and
dependent children of current illegal
immigrants would have the right to enter
the U.S. and become citizens.[2]
There would be no
numeric limit on the number of illegal
immigrants, spouses, and dependents
receiving LPR status; under the amnesty
provision, such individuals would not be
counted against any other cap or limit
in immigration law.[3]
The New
“Temporary Guest Worker” Program: CIRA
creates an entirely new “temporary guest
worker” (H-2C) program. There is nothing
temporary about this program; nearly all
“guest workers” would have the right to
become permanent residents and then
citizens.
Foreign workers
could enter the U.S. as guest workers if
they have a job offer from a U.S.
employer. In practical terms, U.S.
companies would recruit foreign workers
to enter the guest worker program and
immigrate to the U.S. Most likely,
intermediate employment firms would
specialize in recruiting foreign labor
for U.S. employers.
Guest workers
would be allowed to remain in the U.S.
for six years.
[4]
However, in the
fourth year, the guest worker could ask
for LPR status and would receive it if
he has learned English or is enrolled in
an English class.[5]
There are no
numeric limits on the number of guest
workers who could receive LPR status.
Upon receiving LPR status, the guest
worker could remain in the country
permanently. He could become a U.S.
citizen and vote in U.S. elections after
just five more years.
The spouses and
minor children of guest workers would
also be permitted to immigrate to the
U.S.
[6]
When guest workers
petition for LPR status, their spouses
and children would receive it as well.
Five years after obtaining LPR status,
these spouses could become naturalized
citizens. The bill sets no limit on the
number of spouses and children who could
immigrate under the guest worker
program. After workers and their spouses
have obtained citizenship, they would be
able to bring in their parents as legal
permanent residents.
The bill does
provide numeric limits on the number of
guest workers who can enter the country
each year, but the number starts high
and then grows exponentially. In the
first year, 325,000 H-2C visas would be
given out, but if employer demand for
guest workers is high, that number could
be boosted by an extra 65,000 in the
next year. If employer demand for H-2C
workers continues to be high, the number
of H-2C visas could be raised by up to
20 percent in each subsequent year.
The 20 percent
exponential escalator provision allows
the number of H-2C immigrants to climb
steeply in future years. If the H-2C cap
were increased by 20 percent each year,
within twenty years the annual inflow of
workers would reach 12 million. At this
20 percent growth rate, a total of 70
million guest workers would enter the
U.S. over the next two decades and none
would be required to leave. While it is
unlikely that so many workers would
enter, the program does have the
potential to bring ten of millions of
immigrants to the U.S.
The “guest
worker” program, then, is an open door
program, based on the demands of U.S.
business, that would allow an almost
unlimited number of workers and
dependents to enter the U.S. from
anywhere in world and become citizens.
It is essentially an “open border”
provision.
Additional
Permanent Visas for Siblings, Adult
Children, and their Families: The
permanent entry of non-immediate
relatives—such as brothers, sisters, and
adult children—is currently subject to a
cap of 480,000 per year minus the number
of immediate relatives (the parents,
spouses, and minor children of U.S.
citizens) admitted in the prior year.
CIRA eliminates the deduction for
immediate relatives from the cap.
[7]
This effectively
increases the number of non-immediate
relatives who could attain LPR status by
254,000 per year.
Additional
Permanent Employment Visas: The U.S.
currently issues around 140,000
employment-based visas each year. Under
CIRA, the U.S. would issue 450,000
employment-based green cards per year
between 2007 and 2016.
[8]
After 2016, the
number would fall to 290,000 per year.[9]
Under current law,
LPR visas going to the spouses and
children of workers with
employment-based visas are counted
against the cap. Under CIRA, these
spouses and children would be removed
from the cap and given legal permanent
residence without numeric limits.[10]
Historically, 1.2
dependent relatives have entered the
U.S. for each worker under
employment-based immigration programs.[11]
This means that
some 990,000 persons per year would be
granted LPR status until 2016 and, after
that, 638,000 per year.
Estimating
Future Immigration Under CIRA
Most provisions
of CIRA are straightforward; in many
categories, the number of future
immigrants allowed is either directly
stated or can be easily calculated from
the law’s provisions. In some areas,
however, the law’s impact is uncertain.
To estimate future legal immigration
under the bill, three assumptions have
been used in this paper:
Spouses and
children of workers: Dependent
spouses and children represent a
major component of current
immigration. In the current
employment-based visa program, 1.2
dependents enter for each incoming
worker.
[12]
This paper
assumes this ratio will continue in
the employment-based program and
will also apply to those entering
under the new guest worker program.
This is a conservative assumption:
guest workers are likely to have
lower education levels and thus to
have larger families. Finally, many
current illegal immigrants who would
receive amnesty under the bill
already have families in the U.S.;
therefore the ratio of incoming
spouses and children to amnesty
recipients is assumed to be only
0.6, or half the ratio of the
employment-based program.
Parents of
naturalized citizens: Parents of
naturalized citizens currently make
up eight percent of all new legal
immigrants. This paper assumes that
half of all adult immigrants will
naturalize after five years of LPR
status and that 30 percent of the
parents of these naturalized
citizens will immigrate in the three
years after their children’s
naturalization.
Growth in
the guest worker program: The number
of immigrants in the guest worker
program will be driven by employer
demand. The bill allows the number
of H-2C visas to increase by 20
percent per year; this level of
growth would result in an
extraordinary 60 million guest
workers in the U.S. over the next
twenty years. This paper assumes
that the number of immigrants in the
guest worker program would increase
at a more moderate rate of 10
percent per year. Alternative
estimates for 20 percent growth and
zero growth in the program are also
presented.
Under CIRA,
immigrants could enter the country or
attain lawful status within the country
through eight channels. In each channel,
immigrants would be granted permanent
residence and the right to become
citizens. The first channel represents
immigrants who would have entered under
current law; the second channel
represents illegal immigrants who are
currently in the country and would be
given legal permanent residence under
the bill. The other six channels
represent new inflows of legal
immigrants that would occur as a result
of the bill. The total number of new
legal immigrants over a twenty year
period would be as follows: (See
Charts 1
and
2.)
Visas under
current law: Roughly 950,000 persons
receive permanent residence visas
under current law each year. Over 20
years, the inflow of immigrants
through this channel would be 19
million. This represents the
status quo under existing law.
Amnesty: The
bill would grant amnesty to roughly
10 million illegal immigrants. These
individuals are currently living in
the U.S.; amnesty would allow them
to remain legally and to become U.S.
citizens.
Expanded
family chain migration: The number
of family-sponsored visas for
secondary family members, such as
adult brothers and sisters, is
currently limited to 480,000 per
year minus the number of visas given
to immediate family members
(spouses, minor children, and
parents of U.S. citizens). The bill
changes the law so that the total
quota on secondary family members
would be 480,000 without deductions
for immediate family members. The
net increase in the number of
immigrants under this provision
would be around 254,000 per year, or
5.1 million over 20 years.
Employment-based green cards: The
bill would increase the number of
employment-based visas from 140,000
to 450,000 per year. For the first
time, it would also exempt the
spouses and children of workers from
the cap. Total annual immigration
under this provision is likely to be
450,000 workers plus 540,000 family
members annually. The net increase
above current law over 20 years
would be around 13.5 million
persons.
The guest
worker (H-2C) program: CIRA would
allow 325,000 persons to participate
in the guest worker program in the
first year. This number could rise
by 65,000 in the next year and then
by 20 percent per year. Assuming 10
percent annual growth in the annual
number of guest workers entering the
country (well below the bill’s
maximum), the total inflow of
workers under this program would be
20 million over 20 years.
Spouses and
children of guest workers: Guest
workers could bring their spouses
and children to the U.S. as
permanent residents; the added
number of entrants would be 24
million over 20 years.
Spouses and
children of illegal immigrants given
amnesty: Illegal immigrants who
received amnesty could bring their
spouses and children into the U.S.
as legal permanent residents with
the opportunity for full
citizenship. The number of spouses
and children who would enter the
U.S. as a result of amnesty would be
at least six million.
Parents of
naturalized citizens. The bill would
substantially increase the number of
naturalized citizens. Naturalized
citizens would have an unlimited
right to bring their parents into
the U.S. as legal permanent
residents. Over twenty years, the
number of parents who would enter
the U.S. as permanent legal
residents as a result of CIRA would
be around five million.
Overall, the
bill would allow some 103 million
persons to legally immigrate over the
next twenty years. This is roughly
one-third of the current population of
the United States. All of these new
entrants would be permanent residents
and would have the right to become
citizens. This would be a 84 million
person net increase over current law.
Legal Flow
Compared to Illegal Immigration
All of the
immigration discussed to this point
would be legal immigration. If illegal
immigration continued after enactment of
S.2611, the inflow of immigrants would
be even greater. Although illegal
immigration is considered a major
problem, the proposed legal immigration
under CIRA would dwarf it numerically.
The net inflow of illegal immigrants
into the U.S. population is around
700,000 per year.
[16]
Legal immigration
under CIRA would exceed five million per
year, seven times the rate of the
current illegal immigration flow. Annual
legal and illegal immigration together
now equals about 1.7 million; future
legal immigration alone under CIRA would
be three times this amount.
Range of
Estimates
The figure of 103
million new legal immigrants is based on
the assumption that immigration under
the guest worker program would grow at
10 percent per year. If guest-worker
immigration grows at the maximum rate
permitted by the bill, 20 percent per
year, the total number of new immigrants
coming to the U.S. over the next twenty
years would be 193 million. On the other
hand, if immigration under the H-2C
program did not increase at all for two
decades but remained fixed at the
initial level of 325,000 per year, total
legal immigration under CIRA would be 72
million over twenty years, or more than
three times the level that would occur
under current law. (See
Chart 3.)
The tables in
the Appendix show annual inflows of
total legal immigrants in each of the
eight channels mentioned above over the
next twenty years. The tables show the
estimated yearly rate of immigration
under three scenarios for the H-2C
program: zero growth, ten percent
growth, and twenty percent growth.
Dwarfing the
Great Migration
Between 1870 and
1920, the U.S. experienced a massive
flow of immigration known as the “great
migration”. During this period, foreign
born persons hovered between 13 and 15
percent of the population.
[17]In
1924, Congress passed major legislation
greatly reducing future immigration. By
1970, foreign born persons had fallen to
5 percent of the population.
In the last
three decades, immigration has increased
sharply. The foreign born now comprise
around 12 percent of the population,
approaching the levels of the early
1900’s. However, if CIRA were enacted,
and 100 million new immigrants entered
the country over the next twenty years,
foreign born persons would rise to over
one quarter of the U.S. population.
[18] There
is no precedent for that level of
immigration at any time in U.S.
history.
Conclusion
If enacted, CIRA
would be the most dramatic change in
immigration law in 80 years. In its
overall impact on the nation, the bill
would rival other historic milestones,
such as the creation of Social Security
or Medicare.
The bill would
give amnesty to 10 million illegal
immigrants and quintuple the rate of
legal immigration into the U.S. Under
the bill, the annual inflow of
immigrants with the option of becoming
legal permanent residents would rise
from the current level of one million
per year to more than five million per
year. Within a few years, the annual
inflow of new immigrants would exceed
one percent of the current U.S.
population. This would be the highest
immigration rate in U.S. history.
Within 20 years,
some 103 million new immigrants would
enter the U.S. This number is about
one-third of the current U.S.
population. All of these immigrants
would be permanent residents with the
right to become citizens and vote in
U.S. elections. CIRA would transform the
United States socially, economically,
and politically. Within two decades, the
character of the nation would differ
dramatically from what exists today.
Robert Rector
is
Senior Research Fellow in Domestic
Policy Studies at The Heritage
Foundation.
[6]
See
S.6211, Section 403 (m)(1). Some
might argue that the number of
guest workers who would be
permitted to attain LPR status
would be subject to the overall
caps on employment-based
permanent visas elsewhere in
law. But Section 408(h) of the
bill, which deals with the right
of guest workers to convert to
LPR status, clearly states that
“employment-based
immigrant visas shall be made
available to an alien having
nonimmigrant status described in
section 101(a)(15)(H)(ii)(c)
[the H-2C program] upon the
filing of a petition for such a
visa.” In other word, LPR status
shall be granted to any
guest worker upon his filing of
petition; there is no mention of
any numeric cap or other
mechanism limits the number of
such status adjustments.
If the bill’s authors intend to
limit the opportunity of guest
workers to obtain legal
permanent residence with a
numeric cap, then the bill
should explicitly state that
fact.
[11]
Ruth Ellen
Wasem, “U.S. Immigration Policy
on Permanent Admissions,” CRS
Report for Congress,
Congressional Research Service,
Library of Congress, May 12,
2006, p. 18.
[13]
Several
factors have not been included
in the estimates. The paper
ignores future levels of illegal
immigration. The paper assumes
that there are some 12 million
illegal immigrants in the U.S.;
this widely used figure rests on
the assumption that nearly all
illegal immigrants are counted
in annual Census surveys. In
fact, the number of illegal
immigrants in the U.S. may be
much larger; this would mean
that the number of immigrants
eligible for amnesty would also
be higher. The paper also
assumes that there will be no
successful fraud in applications
for amnesty; in fact, the
standards for proving prior
residence and employment in the
U.S. are very flimsy. Fraud may
be prevalent, further boosting
amnesty numbers. Finally, there
is no attempt to estimate return
to native countries or reverse
migration by new immigrants. In
effect, the paper assumes that
returns will be matched by a
corresponding increase in new
entrants under the H-2C program.
[14]
This number
is the net increase in
immigration due to the
legislation and does not include
the secondary family members who
would have immigrated under
current law.
[15]
This number
is the net increase in
employment-based immigration and
does not include persons who
would have immigrated under
current law.
[16]
Jeffrey
Passel Unauthorized Migrants:
Numbers and Characteristics,
Pew Hispanic Center, Washington,
D.C, June 14, 2005, p.6.
[17]National
Research Council, The New
Americans: Economic, Demographic
and Fiscal Effects of
Immigration, National
Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
1997, p. 35
[18]
Currently
there are around 35.7 million
foreign-born persons in the U.S.
(Passel, op.cit., p.3).
With a new influx of 103 million
immigrants, the total
foreign-born population would
reach around 124 million
(adjusting for deaths in the
interim.) Given the massive
projected immigration, the
population of the U.S. would
have swollen to around 449
million by 2027. This would be
up from a base projection of
around 355 million. (U.S. Census
Bureau, 2004, “U.S. Interim
Projections by Age, Sex, Race
and Hispanic Origin,” at
http.://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/.
The foreign born would comprise
around 27 percent of the total
population.
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